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End of Game RNG/Mechanics

Дата: 13.09.2021 18:14:10
View PostZeke250, on Sep 12 2021 - 15:56, said: For those who might be interested in reading the articles I posted up above I have added the name of the websites.  I purposely chose articles from websites which are recognized for utilizing journalistic rigor in what they publish.  If you wish to dive into the data utilized to come to the conclusions they discuss please feel free contact the authors.  I play this game for fun.  I really am not interested in trying to gather data on an on-line game.  Or contacting authors of prestigious websites known and respected in their fields to verify their source data.  I'm also not interested in arguing with folks.  I have expressed my observations based upon my experience in the game and the conclusions I have made from those observations.  It is up to the reader to decide for themselves whether they agree or not.  I'm not at all sure arguing about it accomplishes much.

DeviouslyCursed:  Why your gut feeling is likely wrong about Random: It is well established that the average person does not know what actual random looks like, and will pick something that isn't random over something that is when asked which set of numbers is actually random. Generally only people who know about this will pick correctly. It's difficult to find recent studies showing how bad people are at this, because it is already established fact. Recent studies are more along the lines of why and in what way do humans perceive randomly difficult, and can you predict the numbers a human will list when asked to write random digits (turns out, you sort of can). The study I learned about back in the 90's was one where they asked people to write down strings of random integers. They then handed those lists people created, and gave them along with actual random strings to a different set people and asked which ones were random. People picked the wrong set. This is because people won't generate string with repeating numbers very often, if at all. Not even two numbers in a row, much less 3. Human generated lists are also more spread out out and evenly distributed. There typically won't be clumps of "random weirdness" like a set of ten numbers where half the numbers are the same. Random does this. What does this mean? You are bad at recognizing random. It isn't what you think it is. So when your gut feeling is telling you it's not random, it is doing so based off a misconception of what random actually is.  Finding meaning where none exists: Another older study demonstrated people's ability to find meaning and purpose when there wasn't any. Again, this is established fact, and recent studies are difficult to find as they have moved past the initial reaction and are diving into the 'why' and 'in what way.' They took a group of people, told them they had hired actors and that sometime over the next two weeks, certain events would be orchestrated specifically for them. The participants were to take a notepad and pencil with them and write down the events that were for them when they noticed them. Virtually everyone saw something meant for them, but there were no actors. It was people just reading meaning into coincidence and average things happening. When you look, you will find meaning where there isn't any. This is playing into your belief that the game is rigged. Random string that is weird comes up, your brain thinks it is not random because it doesn't really understand random, and then your mind processes it as intent and meaningful. Then of course, Confirmation Bias will kick in to reinforce this to such a degree that even actual evidence that nothing is amiss will get ignored because "you know."  I wish I could find the base studies that started all these things, but i t was before the internet. Pick up some Psychology books, you may find references in there if you are really interested. (If you really want to freak yourself out, look into the unreliability of personal memory, and then realize most of fine details of your memories is just being made up on the fly by your brain. That is some seriously scary stuff.)

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