End of Game RNG/Mechanics
Дата: 13.09.2021 18:14:10

DeviouslyCursed: Why your gut feeling is likely wrong about Random: It is
well established that the average person does not know what actual
random looks like, and will pick something that isn't random over
something that is when asked which set of numbers is actually
random. Generally only people who know about this will pick
correctly. It's difficult to find recent studies showing how bad
people are at this, because it is already established fact. Recent
studies are more along the lines of why and in what way do humans
perceive randomly difficult, and can you predict the numbers a
human will list when asked to write random digits (turns out, you
sort of can). The study I learned about back in the 90's was one
where they asked people to write down strings of random integers.
They then handed those lists people created, and gave them along
with actual random strings to a different set people and asked
which ones were random. People picked the wrong set. This is
because people won't generate string with repeating numbers very
often, if at all. Not even two numbers in a row, much less 3. Human
generated lists are also more spread out out and evenly
distributed. There typically won't be clumps of "random weirdness"
like a set of ten numbers where half the numbers are the same.
Random does this. What does this mean? You are bad at
recognizing random. It isn't what you think it is. So when your gut
feeling is telling you it's not random, it is doing so based off a
misconception of what random actually is. Finding
meaning where none exists: Another older study demonstrated
people's ability to find meaning and purpose when there wasn't any.
Again, this is established fact, and recent studies are difficult
to find as they have moved past the initial reaction and are diving
into the 'why' and 'in what way.' They took a group of people, told
them they had hired actors and that sometime over the next two
weeks, certain events would be orchestrated specifically for them.
The participants were to take a notepad and pencil with them and
write down the events that were for them when they noticed them.
Virtually everyone saw something meant for them, but there were no
actors. It was people just reading meaning into coincidence and
average things happening. When you look, you will find meaning
where there isn't any. This is playing into your belief that
the game is rigged. Random string that is weird comes up, your
brain thinks it is not random because it doesn't really understand
random, and then your mind processes it as intent and meaningful.
Then of course, Confirmation Bias will kick in to reinforce this to
such a degree that even actual evidence that nothing is amiss will
get ignored because "you know." I wish I could find the
base studies that started all these things, but i t was before the
internet. Pick up some Psychology books, you may find references in
there if you are really interested. (If you really want to
freak yourself out, look into the unreliability of personal memory,
and then realize most of fine details of your memories is just
being made up on the fly by your brain. That is some seriously
scary stuff.)
End of Game RNG/Mechanics