Is this Really Random?
Дата: 27.07.2021 21:45:16
umkhulu, on Jul 27 2021 - 18:28, said: To answer your question, I created a random team generator
against which to compare WoT's matchmaker teams. The results are
quit interesting.... The random team generator is an
algorithm which creates any number of randomly skilled opposing
teams and spits out the PR ratios for statistical evaluation. The
program simulates the proportion of players falling within each
skill bracket at Tier 8. (i.e. 5% Red, 37% Orange, 41% Yellow, 15%
Green, 2% Blue and 0.2% Purple) I have generated 4000
matches for comparison purposes, but the stats remain pretty much
the same no matter how many line-ups you simulate. 
Everything looks normal, but
it would seem that some bell curves are more normal than
others..... 
As you can see, the WoT bell curve is altogether more 'compact'
with a standard deviation of only 3, a variance of 11 as opposed
135, and a positive kurtosis indicating less outliers. So,
the question now becomes, why is MM's random so different from
mine. I'm hoping that somebody has a reasoned explanation instead
of the normal scathing and meaningless comments!.... 
DeviouslyCursed: A couple of things. 1. Are you sure your ratio of
players is correct?2. Even if the ratios are correct, do they all
play the same amount? For instance a blue who plays twice as much
as the average# of games would should be represented twice (or
close to it, since he can't be on his own team, it's not quite
x2)3. I'm betting your random generator is assigning PR values
within the brackets randomly, when that likely is not the case. For
example, the reds are more likely to be to the higher end than the
lower end, but I'm guessing your random generator will spread them
equally across the whole range. For the actual PR numbers, all
brackets above the average have more people closer to the lower
end, all brackets under the average will have more people toward
the higher end. This would likely have an effect of pushing things
closer together for the actual WoT chart, because the skill spread
isn't as large as your random generator is producing.4. If you are
using an individual's (or a few individual's data) their own PR is
likely influencing the actual WoT chart.5. Your mode in your random
one says 37, and that's clearly not correct. I'm betting the
biggest effect is #3 above. So, if I understand your chart
correctly, you showing that the skill spread should be even higher
than what it is in WoT matches?
Is this Really Random?