Riot Calculations Have Changed

Quemapueblos: The formula should not have changed since the last sandbox but I will look into if that is the case. 

I've been pouring over this page to try and figure out some answers and the only parts that pop out at me are:
"When a clan captures a province that previously belonged to another clan for more than 7 days in a row" Possibly to do with the break that just ended and that rule?   And as you expand out riot chance on all territories increases "When the number of owned provinces increases" and you took some provinces yesterday correct?   If you see something that seems fishy please take some screenshots for me