FIX YOUR MATCHMAKING

PREDY4, on May 21 2017 - 13:07, said:    A lot of people complain about blowout battles and because people misunderstand the main reason for them, a lot of misplaced angst goes into "bad teams", "bad MM", "rigging", etc.   But let me point out that blowouts really should be more common than many people think. Once you begin to lose, the chance of losing accelerates.  I did some computations to show this. It’s a very simple probabilistic model (a "Monte Carlo" simulation). The chance of killing an enemy tank is directly proportional to the number of tanks remaining. For this I have left out capping and ties.    A blow out is defined as a result of between 15-0 and 15-4. I simulated 10,000 battles and the probability of each blowout score was determined. For this first example the teams are exactly balanced. Win %    50/50 15-0      0.58% 15-1      1.81% 15-2      3.93% 15-3      6.61% 15-4      8.22%  Any Blowout:  21.15%  So it appears that in a 50/50 match you should expect a result worse than 15:5 every 5 battles. (This doesn't indicate which side you are on, so 15:4 and 4:15 are the same.)  Changing the balance does affect the number of blowouts, but not dramatically. I did four different balance ratios, but I will only show the greatest imbalance. You can interpolate the others. This simulation shows 10000 battles between two teams that are significantly unbalanced. Win %     83/17 15-0       1.27% 15-1       3.97% 15-2       7.30% 15-3       10.20% 15-4       11.60% Any Blowout:  34.34%  So, for every 3 battles, where the odds are as uneven as 87/13, there should be one blowout. TLDR: MM is fine, and blowouts are about as common as would be expected from basic statistical probability.