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End of Game RNG/Mechanics

Дата: 11.09.2021 18:30:55
View PostZeke250, on Sep 11 2021 - 15:53, said: Data versus "feelings".....    Working with data is what I do on a daily basis to make a living.  I value data.  Good decision making is usually dependent upon good data.  But sometimes in life there are circumstances where data is not available or it takes an inordinate amount of time, effort or money to obtain.  In those cases a decision often must be made with only a small amount of data or information.  Can good decisions be made in those circumstances?  It turns out that they often can.   Going With Your Gut Can Result in Better Decision-Making Than Using Detailed Data Methods - June 18, 2021 https://neuroscience...ecisions-18761/   The linked article is fairly short and a good read.  Here is a quote:    “Under extreme uncertainty, managers, particularly those with more experience, should trust the expertise and instincts that have propelled them to such a position. The nous developed over years as a leader can be a more effective than an analytical tool which, in situations of extreme uncertainty, could act as a hindrance rather than a driver of success.”    In most cases I am an advocate for data gathering.  But, can good decisions or correct conclusions be reached without it.  Yes, but with a caveat.  Such decision making should be made based upon experience.  If I have a medical decision that needs to be made, and there are a lot of uncertainties, I will listen to the doctor that has years of training and experience and ignore the dude across the street that is a stock broker.     I am a pretty average player in this game.  But I have played it quite a lot over the years.  So I have a decent amount of experience.  Based upon that experience it is my belief that a change occurred in the game back in 2019 and has continued to this day.  My reason for starting this forum thread was to bring attention to that change.  A couple of years have passed and based upon what others have written or put up on YouTube it is apparent that I am not alone in this belief.  I and others do not need to gather lots of hard data to come to this decision.  We just need to have put in enough time in the game to develop the experience needed to make an informed decision.  Everyone is free to disagree with that belief.  But War Gaming should weigh the consequences of a significant number of people coming to that belief.  These players in one way are making business decisions.  Do I spend money on this game or not?  What people believe is important in such decisions, even if what they believe is wrong.

DeviouslyCursed:  I read the article, and they mostly talked about making decisions on what was going to be popular or be accepted by people. This was essentially about making decisions based on what they expected others' emotional responses would be (liking a book, approving of polices, etc.). It has nothing to do with, and is not relevant to the reality of statistical data and people's ability, or lack there of, to understand statistics. It is fairly well know that humans are really bad at generating actual random number lists, and are equally bad at selecting which lists are random vs man made. In short, your article was not relevant to this discussion of you having a gut feeling about RNG in a video game. All the previous knowledge gained from Psychology, Sociology, and Physiology indicate humans are really bad at what you are trying to say you are really good at. Also, I am a very analytical person too. I haven't seen any indication RNG changes for anyone, at any time. Now we have disagreeing perceptions, and both of us should be really good at this, according to you. So how do we tell who is correct? Yeah, that's right... data.

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