Дата: 11.09.2021 18:30:55
Zeke250, on Sep 11 2021 - 15:53, said: Data versus "feelings"..... Working with data is what
I do on a daily basis to make a living. I value data.
Good decision making is usually dependent upon good data. But
sometimes in life there are circumstances where data is not
available or it takes an inordinate amount of time, effort or money
to obtain. In those cases a decision often must be made
with only a small amount of data or information. Can good
decisions be made in those circumstances? It turns out that
they often can. Going With Your Gut Can Result in Better
Decision-Making Than Using Detailed Data Methods - June
18, 2021
https://neuroscience...ecisions-18761/ The
linked article is fairly short and a good read. Here is a
quote: “Under extreme uncertainty, managers,
particularly those with more experience, should trust the expertise
and instincts that have propelled them to such a position. The nous
developed over years as a leader can be a more effective than an
analytical tool which, in situations of extreme uncertainty, could
act as a hindrance rather than a driver of success.”
In most cases I am an advocate for data gathering. But,
can good decisions or correct conclusions be reached without
it. Yes, but with a caveat. Such decision making should
be made based upon experience. If I have a medical decision
that needs to be made, and there are a lot of
uncertainties, I will listen to the doctor that has years of
training and experience and ignore the dude across the street that
is a stock broker. I am a pretty average player
in this game. But I have played it quite a lot over the
years. So I have a decent amount of experience. Based
upon that experience it is my belief that a change occurred in the
game back in 2019 and has continued to this day. My reason
for starting this forum thread was to bring attention to that
change. A couple of years have passed and based upon what
others have written or put up on YouTube it is apparent that I am
not alone in this belief. I and others do not need to gather
lots of hard data to come to this decision. We just need
to have put in enough time in the game to develop the
experience needed to make an informed decision. Everyone is
free to disagree with that belief. But War Gaming should
weigh the consequences of a significant number of people coming to
that belief. These players in one way are making business
decisions. Do I spend money on this game or not? What
people believe is important in such decisions, even if what they
believe is wrong.
DeviouslyCursed: I read the article, and they mostly talked about making
decisions on what was going to be popular or be accepted by people.
This was essentially about making decisions based on what they
expected others' emotional responses would be (liking a book,
approving of polices, etc.). It has nothing to do with, and is not
relevant to the reality of statistical data and people's ability,
or lack there of, to understand statistics. It is fairly well know
that humans are really bad at generating actual random number
lists, and are equally bad at selecting which lists are random vs
man made. In short, your article was not relevant to this
discussion of you having a gut feeling about RNG in a video game.
All the previous knowledge gained from Psychology, Sociology, and
Physiology indicate humans are really bad at what you are trying to
say you are really good at. Also, I am a very analytical
person too. I haven't seen any indication RNG changes for anyone,
at any time. Now we have disagreeing perceptions, and both of us
should be really good at this, according to you. So how do we tell
who is correct? Yeah, that's right... data.