FIX YOUR MATCHMAKING
Дата: 22.05.2017 07:26:17
PREDY4, on May 21 2017 - 13:07, said: A lot of people complain about blowout battles and
because people misunderstand the main reason for them, a lot of
misplaced angst goes into "bad teams", "bad MM", "rigging", etc.
But let me point out that blowouts really should be
more common than many people think. Once you begin to lose, the
chance of losing accelerates. I did some computations to show
this. It’s a very simple probabilistic model (a "Monte Carlo"
simulation). The chance of killing an enemy tank is directly
proportional to the number of tanks remaining. For this I have left
out capping and ties. A blow out is defined as a
result of between 15-0 and 15-4. I simulated 10,000 battles and the
probability of each blowout score was determined. For this first
example the teams are exactly balanced. Win %
50/50 15-0 0.58%
15-1 1.81%
15-2 3.93%
15-3 6.61%
15-4 8.22% Any Blowout:
21.15% So it appears that in a 50/50 match you should expect
a result worse than 15:5 every 5 battles. (This doesn't indicate
which side you are on, so 15:4 and 4:15 are the same.)
Changing the balance does affect the number of blowouts, but
not dramatically. I did four different balance ratios, but I will
only show the greatest imbalance. You can interpolate the others.
This simulation shows 10000 battles between two teams that are
significantly unbalanced. Win % 83/17
15-0 1.27%
15-1 3.97%
15-2 7.30%
15-3 10.20%
15-4 11.60% Any Blowout:
34.34% So, for every 3 battles, where the odds are as uneven
as 87/13, there should be one blowout. TLDR: MM is fine, and
blowouts are about as common as would be expected from basic
statistical probability.
Mezurashi: Is it really necessary to post this in pink? It's kind of
hard to read this on a white background.
FIX YOUR MATCHMAKING